.
.
.
.
.
.
A Notebook on Forecasting the Weather
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Prepared by
Prof. Richard Grotjahn
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Version ___
2005.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
A Notebook on Forecasting the Weather
R. Grotjahn
Table of Contents
I. Introduction
A. Purpose of this document 1.1
B. General advice for oral presentations 1.1
II. Reviewing recent weather products
A. Overview of general map review 2.1
B. Specific maps & what to examine 2.2
C. Supplementary charts (as needed to justify explanations & information) 2.7
D. Specific maps for recent model performance evaluation 2.8
III. Making a forecast presentation
A. Overview of general forecast presentation 3.1
B. Specific maps in a general presentation 3.1
IV. Making specific weather forecasts
A. General factors for surface forecasts 4.0
B. Forecasting various “significant” weather situations 4.7
- chinooks, downslope winds 4.7
- fog 4.8
- Topographic enhancement of precipitation 4.9
- freezing rain 4.11
- snow line 4.12
- lake effect snows 4.13
- forecasting convection 4.14
- Some specific aviation forecast needs 4.16
C.“Significant” weather situations for the Sacramento Valley 4.18
- CAA NW wind 4.19
- WAA NW wind 4.20
- strong prefrontal southerly winds 4.21
- strong post-frontal southerly winds 4.22
- heavy rain 4.23
- CAA hard freeze (non-radiative) 4.24
- persistent fog 4.25
- summer heat wave 4.26
- summer sea breeze (“delta breeze”) 4.27
- “weather finder” (summary flow chart) 4.30
V. Miscellaneous documents 5.1
A. Some types of weather phenomena 5.1
B. Measures of skill/error 5.4
C. Forecaster comparison papers 5.6
D. Excerpts from Bader et al 5.6
E. North American observing stations information *separate attachment
F. Codes for Tabulated Data. *separate attachment
G. Misc. WSFO forecast criteria 5.7