Extreme (as in rare) Weather and Climate Publications

Also note a set of web pages devoted to extreme events maps, reports, etc.
1. Grotjahn and Faure 2008 (9.4 Mb pdf file, preprint, accepted by Weather and Forecasting) Forecasting Extraordinary weather events affecting southern Sacramento Valley. Shows the large scale structures in upper air variables associated with 4 types of extreme weather. A full compilation of weather maps for the different types of extreme weather can be found here DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007WAF2006055.1
2. Grotjahn 2010 (8.4 Mb pdf file, preprint, excerpt of 'Extremes' chapter that appears in the general audience 'coffee-table' book entitled 'Encyclopedia of Weather and Climate Change' UC Press (March 2010 release) The book won the ASLI first place (Popular Category) award for 2010. This file is just the contents and a sample page.
3. Grotjahn 2011 (2.1 Mb pdf file, reprint from Climate Dynamics DOI: 10.1007_s00382-011-0999-z on A pilot scheme to identify hottest days affecting the California Central Valley from large scale upper air data. It also has additional interpretation of how extreme heat develops there, with the 2006 event as an example.
4. Grotjahn 2013 (1.2 Mb pdf file, preprint from Climate Dynamics. With title: Ability of CCSM4 to Simulate California Extreme Heat Conditions from Evaluating Simulations of the Associated Large Scale Upper Air Pattern. It applies methodology from Grotjahn 2011 to the CCSM4, comparing the meteorological patterns from observations with those from CCSM4. It also discusses topographic problems with comparing CCSM4 surface temperatures to observed distributions. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1668-1
   Springer link to the online article (available to Springer subscribers)
5. Katz and Grotjahn 2014 (0.5 Mb pdf file, excerpt from US CLIVAR Variations volume 12 (1). Summary of work on California Central Valley heat waves, and the Circulation Index from Grotjahn (2011): Extreme value statistics.
6. Grotjahn 2016 (1.4 Mb pdf file, preprint from the book: Dynamics and Predictability of Global and Regional High-Impact Weather and Climate Events. (in press). Summary of work on California Central Valley heat waves: LSMPs from large scale upper air data (reanalysis and CCSM4). It has additional calculations and interpretation of how extreme heat is simulated to occur in two future climate scenarios.(Cambridge Univ. Press book) ISBN: 978-1-107-07142-1
7. Grotjahn et al., 2016 (2.4 Mb pdf file), summary of current knowledge on statistical tools to identify and analyse hot and cold extremes LSMPs, synoptic and dynamic knowledge of LSMPs and their evolution, modeling efforts and trends, and research questions. OPEN ACCESS In Climate Dynamics, 46(3), 1151-1184 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2638-6
8. Lee and Grotjahn, 2016 (PREPRINT) California Heat waves Form Two Ways. describes how the onset of California heat waves is reach by two different patterns of weather. Journal of Climate DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0270.1
9. Grotjahn and Lee, 2016 (PREPRINT) Since California heat waves form two ways, this paper describes how the differences vary between 3 reanalyses and how well these 2 types are simulated by 14 CMIP5 models. (3.5MB file) Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. DOI: 10.1002/2015JD024191
10. Grotjahn and Zhang, 2017 (4.3 Mb pdf file), synoptic analysis of events leading up to the onset of cold air outbreaks on the CONUS west coast. In Journal of Climate, 30, 9417-9433 DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0167.1
    Also has: supplementary materials .
11. Messori, et al., 2018 (0.05 Mb pdf file), An Interdisciplinary Approach to the Study of Weather Extremes (May 2018 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.) https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0296.1
12. Palipane and Grotjahn, 2018 (PREPRINT) This paper builds upon Grotjahn and Lee (2015) to examine 13 climate model simulations for RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of California heat waves including the 2 types that occur. Model results vary as does historical simulation skill so weighted averages are also included. (6.2MB file) In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. doi: 10.1029/2018JD029000
    Also has: supplementary materials (3MB file).
13. Grotjahn and Huynh 2018 Trends of summertime: maximum temperature, maximum heat index, maximum THI, and moisture over three time periods over the contiguous US. In: Nature Scientific Reports. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-29286-w (19.1 MB file)
14. Lee and Grotjahn, 2019 Evidence of specific MJO phase occurrence with summertime California Central Valley extreme hot weather. Describes how the onset of California heat waves appear to have some linkage with specific MJO phases. Submitted to Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (3.9 MB)36(6), 589–602, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-019-8167-1
15. Grotjahn, 2021 (0.6 Mb pdf file), Weather extremes that impact various agricultural commodities. Chapter 3 in the book: Extreme Events and Climate Change: A Multidisciplinary Approach. ISBN: 978-1-119-41362-2 Wiley link: https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Extreme+Events+and+Climate+Change%3A+A+Multidisciplinary+Approach-p-9781119413622
16. Barlow et al., 2019 North American extreme precipitation events and related large-scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends. OPEN ACCESS in: Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04958-z (6.8 MB file)
17. Srivastava et al., 2019 A unified approach to evaluating precipitation frequency estimates with uncertainty quantification: Application to Florida and California watersheds. In: Journal of Hydrology. vol. 578. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124095
18. Swenson and Grotjahn, 2019 Using Self-Organizing Maps to Identify Coherent CONUS Precipitation Regions. In: Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0352.1 (3.0 MB file)
19. Srivastava et al., 2020 Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations of extreme precipitation over contiguous US regions. OPEN ACCESS in: Journal of Weather and Climate Extremes. vol. 29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100268
20. Srivastava et al., 2021a Pooling Data Improves Multimodel IDF Estimates over Median-Based IDF Estimates: Analysis over the Susquehanna and Florida in: Journal of Hydrometeorology. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0180.1
21. Srivastava et al., 2021b Evaluation of precipitation indices in suites of dynamically and statistically downscaled regional climate models over Florida (OPEN ACCESS) in: Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05980-w
22. Srivastava et al., 2023 Assessment of WRF (v 4.2.1) dynamically downscaled precipitation on subdaily and daily timescales over CONUS (OPEN ACCESS) with supplementary material: Supplementary Material Multiple precipitation metrics, including a few extreme metrics. in: Geoscientific Model Development. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3699-2023 (3.9 MB file)
23. Swenson and Grotjahn, 2023 Seasonal and Geographical Variations in Fundamental Weather Patterns during Extreme Precipitation as Identified from Omega Equation Forcing. Presents a climatology of weather patterns sorted into synoptic classifications based upon the time and elevation sequences of vertical motion by the two quasi-geostrophic forcings. The region is the CONUS. (OPEN ACCESS) In: Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0673.1 (4.6 MB file)
24. Sukhdeo et al., 2023 Two Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns are Associated with Short-Duration Dry Spells in the Northeastern United States LSMP-based analysis of 12-day periods of precipitation <2 mm/day over a region in the northeastern USA. How the patterns vary seasonally and with possible remote associations are shown. (OPEN ACCESS) in: Monthly Weather Review. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-23-0141.1