1. Forecast Notebook (2019 02 05) 16MB pdf.
   • Heavy rain example pdf that mixes some forecast and observational products for a 16 January 2019 event.
   • West Coast Cold Air Outbreaks article (Grotjahn and Zhang, 2017) pdf.
   • Sacramento area heat waves article (Grotjahn, 2011) pdf.
2. Supplementary Lecture Notes (2019 02 07) 12MB pdf.

Review sheets for subject groups in lecture:

• Weather Forecasting Subjectmatter:
  1. Weather Map Review (Lectures 1 and 2) 2017 powerpoint file to see animations.
  2. Forecast Discussion 2017 powerpoint file to see animations.
  3. Making specific forecasts
  4. Composite forecast maps for the lower Sacrmento Valley Extraordinary Weather Events (EWEs)

     Compare and contrast heat wave versus strong delta breeze over California

  5. Chinook charts from 0GMT on 3 February 1999 (100+ mph winds in Boulder area)
     Upper air maps (Unisys) - - - - Surface map (Unisys)
  6. Analysis/forecast cycle:
     • Gathering observations
     • Objective analysis
     • Computer models including the Eta and MRF/AVN.
       1. Recent discussion of AVN/MRF model properties
       2. Recent discussion of Eta model changes
          Also of interest: NCEP mesoscale modelling branch
     • NAMB dynamical core lecture 2017 pdf.
     • NAM physical parameterizations lecture 2017 pdf.
     • Using statistics in guidance including MOS, Verification, and Consensus.
       • Example of MRF MOS for California locations

     ************ some things are not yet updated below **********

• Weather Analysis Subjectmatter (emphasis on midlatitude frontal cyclones):
  • Vorticity Equation includes links to:
    • advection of "solenoids" and the
    • "Bowstring model" of vertical motion

    • A review table for vorticity equation terms.
  • QG forcing of upward motion including some background in the QG system.
  • Simplified omega equation including effects of differing cyclone size.
  • Height tendency equation section

• Weather Analysis Subjectmatter (emphasis on midlatitude frontal cyclones): (continued)
  • Surface pressure tendency equation section 4.3
  • Chapter 6 parts covered.
  • Chapter 7 parts covered.
  • lecture on BEBVE pdf by Y-Y Lee
  • Chapter 8 parts covered. skipped since 2007
  • A review table for equations of vorticity motion & development.
  • Orographic influences
  • Chap. 10.1: cyclone climatology skipped since 2007
  • Chap. 10.2: cyclone evolution under const.
  • Chap. 10.3: Cyclone movement
  • Chap. 10.4: Mature Cyclones

  • Final Exam (broken link)
    Electronic copy of Final Exam broken link

  • Chap. 10.7: Polar Lows skipped since 2007
  • Chap. 12.1: Isentropic Analysis Only general ideas since 2007
  • Chap. 12.3: Relative isentropic flow in warm conveyor belt

    Only general ideas since 2007

  • Chap. 12.3: Relative isentropic flow in cold conveyor belt
  • Chap. 14.1: Jet streaks

    Below was skipped since 2007

  • Chap. 13.2: Frontogenesis equation
  • Chap. 14.3: "How a front is made" (emphasis upon the ageostrophic circulation that is set up.) The final section (below) was not discussed in the 2002 offering of the course.
  • Chap. 14.4: Q-vector diagnosis of frontogenesis (forcing of the front and its ageostrophic circulation can be deduced from isentropes and geostrophic winds using the Q vector.).

Weekly labwork information:

• Assignment #1 (2011)

  Electronic copy of no-color.jpg showing black contours of 500 hPa geopotential height.

  Supplemental maps:
  • Trough-Practice map Z at 250hPa
  • Fronts Practice maps
  • Map 2 showing black contours of 500 hPa geopotential height and colored shading of relative vorticity (red is positive; blue is negative).
  • Map 3 showing black contours of SLP and colored shading of 500 hPa geopotential.

  electronic copy of reduced color.jpg showing thickness (black contours) and SLP (colored contours).

  Supplementary map groups (other variables shown) in chronological order:
  • upper air charts to go with sfc/h chart for lab 1
• Assignment #2
  • electronic copy of 4-panel thkns & SLP Does not have precip marked
    • electronic copy of surface map 12 hrs before map a.
    • electronic copy of 4-panel thkns & SLP Has the areas of precipitation asked about marked. (Note the areas of precipitation are much more extensive than these maps have marked.)
    • Directory with electronic copies of all upper air maps NOTE: the relevant maps start with W08 in the file name.
• Assignment #3
  • directory of forecast maps for problem 1.
    It also has link to COMET modules on NWP exam(s).
  • directory of COMET modules. Pick the topic area as the Numerical Modeling (NWP) group.
• Hwk Assignment #6 (2011)

  Electronic copy of the assignment .

• Labwk Assignment #4 (2011)

  Electronic copy of the assignment .

• Assignment #7
  • directory of weather maps Z, Zp, T, Tp for 080108 12z storm.

  Ignore old assignments listed below

  Ignore old assignments listed below

• Assignment #2
  • electronic copy of thkns & SLP Does not have precip marked
  • electronic copy of thkns, SLP & Precip Does have precip marked
  • Directory with electronic copies of all maps
• Assignment #2 electronic copy of thkns-SLP-Precip thkns & SLP only
  Supplementary map groups (other variables shown) in chronological order:
  supplement 1 supplement 2 supplement 3 supplement 4 Related to the map you group are analyzing.
  supplementary animation of the 4 supplementary map groups.

• Assignment #3
  • directory of forecast maps for problem 1.
    It also has link to COMET modules on NWP exam(s).
  • directory of COMET modules in the NWP group.

• Assignment #6 EXCEL file of input data

• Lab #7 directory of images

  ***** prior year assignments below ****

• Assignment #4 EXCEL file of input data

• Assignment #8 directory for images

• All Lecture Homework and Labwork

  Electronic copy of Electronic copy of all assignments. Next lecture or lab assignment should be handed out the day that the previous lecture or lab assignment, respectively, is due. (pdf file)
  Electronic .doc file of the same assignments.

Term Project information:

Here is A simplified guide to creating the .gif animation from the input list of .gif files using Animation Shop.

Here are: the 1999, 2000, & 2002 student animations

California Floods:

• Davis NEXRAD Radar Imagery 1/1/97 from 09:31 to 10:23 GMT
• GOES-W water vapor channel Satellite Imagery 1/1/97 from 11:00 to 19:00 GMT

2017 floods

• Pictures near Dr. Grotjahn's farm (11 January 2017)

COMET Modules

• starting point of the Data Analysis module
  • observing system properties/errors from the Data Analysis module
  • matrix of operational model properties from the Data Analysis module
• understanding fcst Models & their Proc.
• Model Fundamentals general entry point
• how mesoscale models work requires audio playback
• mesoscale convective systems numerous subdirectories
  forecasting severe convection general entry point -- much currently on CD only Also, several need materials to be gathered and studied prior to starting the module.

• NWS Training Portal various forecast situations, such as fire weather, aviation weather, and severe weather.

Do you have any questions about frontal cyclones .
(Yes, that is a "real" satellite image.)
Then we encourage you to contact:

Personnel:

Instructor: Prof. R. Grotjahn

rm 173 Hoagland Hall, Phone: 752-2246, E-mail: grotjahn at ucdavis.edu

Teaching assistant:

rm Hoagland, Phone: 752-1868, E-mail:

Just for fun...

What is wrong with this picture? (Hint: look at the front type...)

Overlay of SatIR and 500 hPa.

Corresponding SatIR and SLP.

STORAGE BELOW:

Midterm from 2007 (.pdf file)coming soon

• Past weather discussion charts shown in class
• selected images selected parts of text (.doc file) Forecast maps discussion charts shown in class